weekend notes

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2018 about mental models and market tops (see below). Taking a few weeks off from writing as I do each year, for family, friends, gratitude, altitude. Wishing the same for you. Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah. All the very best, Eric For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom. Anecdote (July 2018): “Every inves

Anecdote: “Let me tell you a familiar story,” I said, discussing market risks, opportunities, in Stockholm this week. Early in my career, Sweden hit the wall. Decades of economic math that hadn’t quite added up had compounded to a point where a market unwind was unavoidable. As the crisis climaxed in late 1992, the central bank hiked overnight interest rates to 500% to punish speculative short-sel

Hope all goes well… Army’s helicopters crossed the 50-yard line slow and low. Thump, thump, thump. The stadium went wild. Eight thousand Naval Academy and West Point cadets. Navy’s jets tore the sky in two, the sound of freedom. The crowd roared. I had flown back from a quick European tour, our family not quite all together again, my oldest deployed to the southern border. The Army/Navy football g

Anecdote: “After the end of the Cold War, American foreign policy elites convinced themselves that permanent American domination of the entire world was in the best interests of our country,” wrote the authors of the ‘National Security Strategy of the United States of America,’ released this week, signed by the President [here], who is not yet one full-year into his term. What follows speaks for i

Hope all goes well… “Class of 2026,” said the commanding officer to West Point’s senior class, gathered for Branch Night. “Some of you will be blessed with the right decision,” he said, booming over the loudspeaker. The cadets went wild. “But some of you, well…” The hall erupted in laughter, uncomfortably, some groans, sick humor. Each of the 1,200 cadets held a sealed letter, within which was pri

Hope all goes well… Dusted off a 2018 anecdote about ridicule, resiliency, and 4th children, that had us all laughing again during Thanksgiving break (see below). Hope you and your clan had a wonderful celebration. Back next Sunday with full wknd notes. All the very best, Eric For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom. Anecdote (Nov 2018): “What the hell Ch

Anecdote: Markets always move for a reason. Those of us who have been doing this for a long time often say the reason is always the same: prices rally when there are more buyers than sellers, and vice versa. But that’s not exactly true. For every buy-order that is executed in a marketplace, there is a matching sell-order. What is true is that if buyers are more eager to buy than sellers are to sel

Hope all goes well… “Any bodies floating to the surface yet?” I asked the team, all of us on an investment call, discussing markets, the relentless selling in crypto. “How about the basis, any signs of funding stress bubbling up, leverage unwinds?” I asked. And for sure, there is speculation of forced selling, mostly during US trading hours. But until a Bloomberg headline hits, with confirmation t

Anecdote: Headed to DC to meet all sorts of folks, ask some questions. Like what if running the economy hot, boosting productivity through an aggressive AI buildout, pushing oil prices lower, sustaining moderate inflation, and subduing interest rates through financial repression doesn’t work out as planned? What’s the fallback at that point? And how do you make the economy boom with the existing i