weekend notes

Hope all goes well… Another quiet week on this little planet. Dusted off an anecdote about the conflict between the US and Iran, from back in 2019, during Trump’s first term (see below). Happy Father’s Day. Back next Sunday with full weekend notes. All the very best, Eric Week-in-Review: Mon: Trump sends National Guard into LA without Newsome’s permission. China/US trade talks reportedly going wel

Anecdote: “Okay, so imagine the Federal Reserve converts its US government bond holdings to 100-year zero-coupons that are worth pennies on the dollar,” I said to my favorite strategist. The two of us were thinking of ways the US government could reduce its annual interest expense and lower overall debt. “The market would consider it a desperate accounting trick – so it probably backfires.” Low in

Hope all goes well… “I Got Mine Pre-Elon Meltdown,” read the bumper sticker. My Uber whisked me through Silicon Valley; neighborhoods sprinkled with Tesla’s. “I Bought This Before Elon Went MAGA,” read another sticker. Everything is political now. Automobiles, energy policies, medicine, science, deficits, even blockchain technology. “Elon Who?” was my personal favorite. And with the Musk/Trump bro

Anecdote: “Here’s a hypothetical,” I said, the two of us at breakfast in NYC, a friend of many years. “If you and I started a company together, full commitment, all-in, what would it be?” He considered the question. “The world is obviously changing radically with AI, geopolitics, trade, and you see everything from your seat, most important deals, so what would it be?” I pressed, not serious about

Hope all goes well… “The General told us 80% of the guys killed in Ukraine have been blown up by drones,” said Jackson, studying our numerous adversary’s weapon systems. “Both sides learned that if you control drones using fiber optic lines, there’s no way to jam communications. So, the new drones trail up to 2 kilometers of what looks like fishing line as the controller’s hunt people down and the

Hope all goes well… Spent today with our family at West Point, a special way to commemorate Memorial Day. Our daughter’s close friend was graduating and wanted us there, another class of Second Lieutenants headed into the unknown. President Trump gave the commencement this year at Army, whisked in an out on one of three Ospreys, military snipers dotting the rooflines. The President, Vice President

Anecdote: Storms roll in fast here, angry squalls, then they’re gone, racing across the valley, dark, menacing, northward toward Yellowstone. High in the mountains, early spring’s grass is of the most vibrant green, the sweet but brief reward of a hard life, the eternal struggle. There was a time not so long ago when this land was owned by no one. Native Americans coming and going. And here we are

Hope all goes well… On Friday, Aug 5, 2011, Standard and Poor’s lowered America’s AAA credit rating. The S&P 500 index fell 7% in the subsequent session to 1120. The VIX index surged from 22.5 to 48.3. Even though S&P had downgraded US creditworthiness, 10-year treasury yields fell 22bps to 2.34% as investors rushed to “safety.” The Swiss Franc gained 2%. Gold jumped 3% to $1,717. Bitcoin

Anecdote: Ethereum (ETH) rallied 35% this week. It’s the kind of move that raises eyebrows, even for crypto traders. It’s still lower year-to-date – been a dog. Ethereum was designed to be the infrastructure upon which a new financial system would be built. At first it was too slow and expensive. That’s when I first saw its potential, with Ethereum at $425. There was a future state where all