Month

My Ford Bronco was built in 1971, 2yrs after Armstrong stepped on the moon, lifted by basic computing and raw ambition. It’s got no power brakes, no power steering, and 8 cylinders that guzzle gas and shake the neighborhood. So when I fire her up, I’m reminded how technology has advanced, and how that advance has accelerated. Moore’s Law (the number of transistors we can put on a computer chip doubles every 2yrs) has

Hope all goes well. Spent an interesting few days in London. Uncertainty about the direction of mkts and the world economy persists. Flows in our industry are warming up. Overall: The G20 called for a truce in FX mkts and offensive operations ceased. The generals surveyed the field, stocked up on supplies: bought insurance (VIX +13%); food (corn +4%); and Gold (+2.5%). Stocks & Dollars were quiet/stable as foot s

The G20 called for a truce in FX mkts and offensive operations ceased. The generals surveyed the field, stocked up on supplies: bought insurance (VIX +13%); food (corn +4%); and Gold (+2.5%). Stocks & Dollars were quiet/stable as foot soldiers, safe in foxholes, spent more time debating QE2 than fingering buy/sell triggers. India’s Singh announced an alliance with Japan to mine rare earth metals, circumventing Ch

There’s a war in progress. The world needs a grown-up in the sandbox or kids are gonna get hurt. WTO’s Lamy tried to assume the role, lectured the children, “History will judge us harshly if our collective efforts to exit the crisis were to be frustrated by short-term rent seeking.” BOE’s King pleaded, “What is needed now is a grand bargain among the major players in the world economy.” Geithner sent a letter to G20

I rode my bike downhill, top speed, through a series of banked turns high in the mountains. It’s my favorite stretch ‘cause fast turns raise my pulse – transport me to an earlier life. As I exit the last curve, a large coyote stands motionless, directly in my path. Our eyes lock. I hold my line. He stares intently. I bark. He leaps right. And we avert a horrible crash. Oh, it happened real fast – instinct

Hope all goes well. Mkts continue to adjust to too many cooks in the FX kitchen. Heading into this weekend, knives were flying and it got pretty messy. We got cut up on some Renminbi and Brazil longs, Euro shorts hurt too – took some of our bigger risks off on Fri – G20 is a wildcard. Overall: There’s a war in progress. The world needs a grown-up in the sandbox or kids are gonna get hurt. WTO’s Lamy tried

The Chilean miners emerged from their dark hole, a fitting metaphor for the triumphant rise of Latin America. ‘10 inflows to LatAm bonds are 5x previous record set in ’05. Credit default spreads on BRIC countries tightened to 40bps above developed nations vs 360bps in Mar ’09. China roared: FX reserves hit record $2.65trln, real estate sales jumped 50% m/m, reserve requirements increased, stocks surged 8.5% and the Y

Timing is everything. It’s kinda true, but let’s face it, you gotta be pretty smart and work real hard for good timing to arrive at your doorstep. I know lots of guys with good timing; some had to be more patient than others. One’s a blood brother, we grew up at Lehman buying and selling currencies; had impeccable timing from the day a doctor slapped his English arse. Has a magical gift: he knows when other people ar

Hope all goes well. Had a great trip to NY, met loads of fascinating folks. Most everyone thinks QE is driving the equity rally and don’t want to buy – ‘cause they think it’s a bad reason to own stocks. But up goes the S&P, all alone, with many sad faces waving goodbye. Speculative USD shorts hit all-time highs, but the sell-off stalled on Fri. Overall: The Chilean miners emerged from their dark hole, a fit

Global politicians debated the precise meaning of “currency war”; took me back to Clinton’s “what exactly is the definition of is” days. Meanwhile, in the voting booth, traders pulled the “Sell” lever; USD fell vs everything. Gold made new highs (yawn) and commodities surged (S&P 500 included). Grains rocketed, raising food shortage fears. Russia & India welcomed stronger currencies to help fight inflation. B