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“Declining productivity rates,” he answered, after a long, thoughtful pause. We’d been discussing the interplay of technology and the global economy, emerging investment trends, themes. I finished by asking a favorite question: What in your world do you find most perplexing? You see, if you want an explanation for what just happened, ask an economist. If you want a forecast, ask a strategist. Explanations and forecas

“Our efforts must aim at restoring hope, righting wrongs, maintaining commitments and thus promoting the well-being of individuals and of peoples,” he told Congress. Like all the world’s great spiritual leaders, Pope Francis’ message was open to interpretation, universal, intended for all, his clergy especially. Because no organization built upon faith can endure while violating trust; and all organizations are built

Hope all goes well… “My propensity to save is extremely high,” he said. “Why do I want all this money?” he asked, rhetorically. “Don’t really know, but I just do, I want more.” I listened, smiling. “Maybe that’s because I’m worried.” We all have problems, but money couldn’t possibly be one of his. “I’m worried all the other money I’ve saved will disappear in a crisis.” He paused, laughed at the irony of this circular

Hope all goes well… “Don’t know what this all means,” grunted Bulldog, following the ultra-dovish Fed announcement, eyeing the S&P sell-off. “But it’s a whole lot of not-good.” We discussed scenarios for long-term bond yields. The possibility of steeper curves, as global central bankers are forced into more aggressive accommodation. If bond yields remain low, things should be fine. “But if long-term yields start

“No,” said my oldest. And I smiled as we walked; you see, he’s inherited my rage-against-the-machine gene. He’d spent summer training. Hours a day. Every day. Shooting, rebounding, running. And tried out for his favorite club; 3D Lacrosse. They passed on him. So he spent this week agonizing, alone in the yard, shooting in sweaty fury. Preparing to try out for a rival; The Chargers. An unexpected 3D email arrived; a s

Overall: “They don’t see it,” muttered Janet to herself, gazing out across the Potomac, diamonds dancing upon its surface. After years of placing faith in Princeton’s Bernanke, Washington politicians turned to Berkeley’s Yellen, praying for Silicon Valley alchemy; to transform their stagnation into acceleration. “Central banking innovation is an illusion,” she whispered, mesmerized by so many diamonds. You see, centr

“Today we unearth our past,” said deputy president Ramaphosa, peering into Homo Naledi’s prehistoric eye sockets. 2.5mm years ago our little ancestors buried their dead in a quiet South African cave, on our 4.5bln year-old planet, spinning in our 13.8bln year-old universe. And when you pull a chart back that far, humanity’s recent bull trend is smoothly upward-sloping, accelerating, breathtaking. “We coul

Hope all goes well… “For years it has taken three weeks for the market to fall, and three days to recover,” said Yoda, high in the Rockies, pausing, considering the great ascent from 2009’s spike low to 2015’s choppy consolidation. “Now is the time to tune in, ignore the news, the noise,” whispered the market’s biggest S&P local. “Look at the chart, consider the behavior.” The S&P 500 fell 10.5% in three days

I ruled out defunct Norse gods. And medieval fortifications. I’m not remotely smart enough for a Latin name. And every trout stream has been trademarked. Rocks are great, stones too, but investing is a game that requires flexibility, fluidity. Of course, you never want a name that carries the risk of irony; like Phoenix. And perhaps the ultimate irony is to obsess over a name, when building a business is about so muc

Hope all goes well… “The last time vol traded this way was Aug/Sep 2011,” said Roadrunner, the market’s biggest equity volatility trader. But when markets get like this, treasuries rally and their implied volatility jumps too. “Bond vol was offered all week, it’s the one thing that doesn’t make sense, it tells a different story,” continued the clever bird, glancing left, right, up. “If bond vol fails to jump this wee