Month

Week-in-Review: Mon: Japanese trade surplus surges (exports fall for 9th mth, imports fall for 18th mth), Bank of Israel hold rates at 0.1% (cites Brexit risks), UK biz confidence hits post-GFC lows, German business confidence jumps, Greece loosens capital controls, Mexico retail sales +8.6%, Brazil consumer conf +5.7 to 76.7, odds of 2016 Fed rate hike rise to 50%, Verizon buys Yahoo for $4.8bln, S&P -0.3%; Tue:

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote about climbing mountains from 2011 (see below). Taking my annual August break from writing. See you again in September with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: Japanese trade surplus surges (exports fall for 9th mth, imports fall for 18th mth), Bank of Israel hold rates at 0.1% (cites Brexit risks), UK biz confidence hits post-GFC lows, German business confidence jumps,

Hope all goes well… “We’re in the zone of a turning point,” said Eagle, soaring high above Gotham. Far below, countless little creatures starved for yield, scurrying after crumbs, panicked. Eagle recalled the 2011 Fukushima disaster, the ensuing Yen rally, Nikkei decline, Japan’s existential crisis. Followed by Abe’s 2012 election, the market’s explosive reversal. “I don’t yet see the bond market’s equivalent of the

“This uprising is a gift from God,” exclaimed the autocrat, ebullient. “They’ll pay a heavy price,” continued Erdogan, unleashing his purge of political opponents. 10,000 were arrested, 60,000 civil servants dismissed, hundreds of schools closed. “It looks as if something had been prepared, the lists are available, which indicates they were to be used at a certain stage,” said EU commissioner Hahn, overseeing Turkey’

“I do one thing really well,” said the CIO, raising an index finger, looking at it, considering it, so simple. “I am really good at identifying things that in 60-90 days will appear to have been patently absurd,” he continued. “In February, everyone was consumed by the bear case.” China slowing, populations ageing, the world overburdened by debt, leverage and excess capacity. “People took these arguments so far that

Overall: “I would rather run the risk of taking a sledgehammer to crack a nut than taking a miniature rock hammer to tunnel my way out of prison,” said Andy Haldane, Bank of England’s chief economist, referencing the movie classic, Shawshank Redemption. Everyone loves that flick; a jailbreak, executed with patient precision, interwoven with wisdom. In the closing scene, Morgan Freeman explains, “In 1966, Andy Dufresn

Hope all goes well… “I can’t call it the ‘Stop Trump Rally’ but that’s what it is,” bellowed Biggie Too, chief global strategist for one of those too big to fail affairs. “Brexit has these people saying — Jesus, we’re screwed, so let’s hike their minimum wages, cut taxes, build infrastructure, let ’em eat cake,” barked Biggie. “Of course you don’t solve a debt problem with more debt; mo money, mo problems

“Has Brexit created the political Lehman moment?” asked the CIO on the outskirts of the Eurozone. We were discussing whether Britain’s populist revolt is the catalyst for a global fiscal stimulus, or if this latest risk-asset rally in anticipation of more stimulus is another bounce to fade. “Has Brexit absolved markets of the need to fall sharply?” he continued. You see, the way this usually works is that economic we

Overall: She smiled. A forced, uneasy smile. Puckered up, blew a kiss. And turning from the mirror, Janet made her way down the hall. To a private office. Its walls covered by her only remaining forecasting tools. You see, the Fed’s models ceased working long ago. Taylor Rules, Phillips Curves, and so many other fantastic formulas all failed to explain our new reality. Which left one tool; television. The window into

Hope all goes well… “The poor are angry,” said the CIO. “The rich are angry too,” he continued. “Both feel manipulated by politicians and policy makers.” The last bond vigilante cried out in agony. Equity bears groaned in the distance. As the power of negative interest rates rippled across the globe. “We all feel manipulated, everyone sees injustice.” But computers don’t feel injustice, they don’t care, they ride tre