Month

Hope all goes well… “Just back from Tokyo,” said the strategist. “Closed door session kind of trip.” Twenty top Japanese and Chinese investors, business leaders. “Not a single one was terribly bothered by Kim Jong Un, it’s the other haircut they’re worried about.” No one has yet made a material portfolio adjustment. A few bought some Nikkei puts. “They’ve learned to live with crazy North Korean Kim’s for decades, the

“Whatever investment style you adopt will blow up someday,” said the CIO. “When that day comes, will you fold or double down?” he continued. We were discussing systematic investing. I see its future dominance and am building my firm accordingly. “If you’ve surrendered control to a machine, how will you make that decision?” he asked. Before I could answer, he supplied his own. “I’d rather practice making decisions alo

Overall: “Did he really call me Rocket Man?” cried the chubby Korean kid. “Yes he did Rocket Man,” said some nervous sycophant in a cheap suit, saluting his Dear Leader. “Did he call me a scared, barking dog?” barked earth’s most powerful man, typing a tweet. “Woof!” answered the President’s pack. “He called me a suicidal madman on Twitter!” stammered shorty, combing his black bouffant. “He said he’d tame Trump with

“Any other thoughts on the matter?” he asked. We’d spent quite some time discussing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and copycat cryptocurrencies popping up faster than North Korean nukes. I mostly listened, he knew far more about the subject; blockchain, distributed legers, mining, halving, hash rates. Unlike the S&P 500 realized volatility’s collapse to 8%, these new creations are realizing at 90%. Which makes them attractiv

Overall: “The global economy will recover, but the timing and strength of the recovery are highly uncertain,” said Ben Bernanke, the experiment’s architect. “Government policy responses around the world will be critical determinants of the speed and vigor of the recovery,” he explained, in January 2009. Lehman failed the previous September 15th. On that day, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet was $905bln, roughly 6%

Hope all goes well… “As a safety, you can’t let anyone get behind you Charlie,” I said, driving my 3rd grader, coaching, gameday. “The strange thing about football is that the harder you hit your opponent, the less it hurts,” I explained, as he watched late summer roll by, window down, helmet in lap. “Wanna know something amazing Daddy?” he asked. “Hydrangeas can grow into trees, with the same huge flowers as bushes.

Overall: First came Harvey, stormed right in. Unwelcome. Undocumented. Then Irma, up through the Cuban passage. On her heels is Jose. And no wall is containing that Mexican. Not even the Great Wall could hold back such a savage force. In fact, walls stop nothing, they simply slow an advance. China learned that the hard way. Mao walled in antiquity’s greatest economy, and stopped its advance dead. Walls weaken those t

Hope all goes well… “They’ve retraced back to election levels,” said Roadrunner, the market’s biggest equity volatility trader. “That often happens, not all that unusual, though it surprised most people this time.” US 10-year bond yields closed Friday at 2.06%, just below the November 9th post-election close. “Stocks have not done the same.” The S&P 500 remains 12% above the Nov 9th close. “But if bond yields fal

Anecdote: My life in four acts: Act I: Coffee with my wife [building a portfolio to withstand known unknowns] Eric: I ordered a coop that can house 8-15 chickens. Mara: Why so big? I swore we’ll never have more than four chickens at a time. Eric: I’m trusting my instincts on this. Act II: Fresh from the farm [recognizing signs of an impending bear market] Mara: We bought six chickens! Eric: Six? I thought we’d never

Overall: Rain fell. The water rose. Rivers flowed. Their snaking paths hidden beneath a vast flood plain. Not a soul was spared. Not the whites, blacks, browns, reds or yellows. Not the Christians, Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists, or Atheists. They all got wet. And thrashing about up to their waists, these Americans joined hands, worked their way out. Which is not to say it was pretty. Disasters never are, neither a