Hope all goes well… “Hard to pinpoint why this happened,” said Roadrunner, the market’s biggest equity volatility trader. “But this kind of move usually reflects something below the surface.” Poorly designed VIX exchange-traded products are the fall guys. “Could it have simply been too much leverage and complacency? Doubt it.” VIX finished the week at 16.5, back below where it started the morning of Feb 5th. “I strug
“All children are born artists,” said Picasso, “The challenge is to remain an artist as we grow up.” I was watching ‘Do Schools Destroy Creativity,’ Sir Ken Robinson’s brilliant TED Talk. One of my portfolio managers had suggested it, Kanzo, and felt its wisdom held certain crossovers to the investment process. Sir Ken told a story: A little girl was in a drawing lesson. She was six, at the back, and hardly ever paid
Hope all goes well… “My heart goes out to every child who had to walk back into their classrooms today,” said the radio host as I drove my kids to school. “That’s what I’m talking about! I love this station!” cheered Teddy, laughing. “Shut up Teddy, she’s talking about the 17 kids who were shot dead at a school,” said Jackson, shaken, uncharacteristically. The car went quiet. “Who shot them?” asked Teddy. “Another ki
Hope all goes well… “March 2009,” whispered Yoda, high in the Rockies. “The market bounced sharply off 666, and minutes before the close rallied 30 points. This is how bear markets end.” The economy was in freefall, 10% unemployment, banks, earnings awful. “Bear markets find valleys. Bull markets find summits.” said Yoda. Gentle white trails swirled off distant peaks, winter’s fierce wind, snow. “At the bottom all is
They searched frantically for fundamental factors, nerds scurrying over Excel worksheets like rats on a sinking ship. Financial reporters hit speed dials. Talking heads peppered portfolio managers. Unemployment hovers near 1960 lows. Earnings are at records, growing double digits, fastest since 2011. Profit margins are amongst history’s highest. The global economy enjoys a rare synchronized expansion. Not a single tr
It raced across the night sky at 150,000 mph. No larger than a marble. The meteorite vanished in a trail of brilliant light, a faint green copper glow, come and gone. And his heart raced, recalling that first shooting star, decades ago, a child in a backseat, face pressed to the window, searching the heavens. His excitement late that night, replaced by profound sadness. The tragic fate of that distant star, its surro
Hope all goes well… “Things had been too easy for too long,” said Roadrunner, the equity market’s biggest volatility trader. “Yet vol has found a bid on each dip for weeks,” he said. “The market saw this coming.” The S&P 500 rallied +7.5% in the first 18 trading days of 2018. Yet implied volatility levels rose. Then stocks fell -3.9% in 5 days. “When stocks dump on a Friday, closing at the lows, and you haven’t h