Month

“My first six months were agony,” he said. “Nothing worked, no matter how hard I tried.” We sat in London, relaxed, reflecting, in a magnificent meeting room, dressed in fine art, disguising the true nature of this wonderfully horrible business. Because trading-floor walls are filthy, stained from risk-takers throwing crap, hoping something sticks. “Worried I’d get sacked,” continued the portfolio manager, now amongs

Obama’s Treasury Secretary spoke all day. And felt no one understood him. Because Jack’s mother tongue is English, the language of business; but more precisely, Lew spoke American, with a New York accent – the dialect of money. Sapin spoke the language of love. Of course, there’s no more beautiful tongue, but those who speak French have grown tone deaf to American, bitter that it’s not love, but money, that mak

Hope all goes well… “People were looking for multiple expansion,” said Yoda, high in the Rockies. “But who expected it would happen with prices at all-time highs, while earnings forecasts fall?” asked the market’s biggest S&P local. “6wks ago the S&P had 35-point ranges, now they’re 11-points,” he said. “Have sellers surrendered?” Then Yoda paused. “This is the 6th year of the bull market, what does that tell

Hope all goes well… Amsterdam. Geneva. Next stop London. And squeezed in between, high altitude. Solitude. A late night walk through the forest. Mont Blanc aglow, reflecting. Recollecting. And recalled an anecdote from my year here. Argentiere. (see below) Back next Sunday, with full wknd notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: China trade surplus record $60bln (imports -19.9% yoy, exports -3.3%), Japan CA surplus Y187bln (trade

Week-in-Review: Mon: China trade surplus record $60bln (imports -19.9% yoy, exports -3.3%), Japan CA surplus Y187bln (trade deficit –Y396bln), UAE/Jordan announce joint ISIS airstrikes, Abbot survives no-confidence vote, Greece’s Tsipras refuses bailout extension, Merkel/Obama meeting (disagree over arming Ukraine), Obama “Won’t extend Iran nuclear deal deadline,” S&P -0.4%; Tue: China CPI 5yr low +0.8% yoy (PPI

Hope all goes well… “You can make money being long or short,” said Road Runner, the market’s top volatility trader. “You just can’t fall in love with a position.” Late Wed, the S&P slipped 20-points on Greece. Then jumped 20 on Thurs. Friday it rallied on a great jobs number but closed lower. “Equity vol prices tell you people remain nervous.” On down-days there’s no scramble for puts. “The oil pop was a bear mar

“We want as little market distortion as possible,” announced the French central banker, a career contortionist. You see, in early March the ECB will create money from the ether, buying bonds, and continue until inflation magically rises to 2%. One-third of Europe’s sovereign debt already trades at negative yields. Because ECB deposit rates are -0.20%. Denmark announced the globe’s 542nd rate cut since Dick fulded Leh

“Ready to start your day right?” asked Mara, a sly smile. I was making coffee, Saturday, back from wandering the world, wondering what was in store. She flipped pancakes, “Breakfast time!” Teddy came in hot, sliding in his socks to a stop. “Let it fly for your father,” said Mara. “You sure?” he asked, eyes sparkling. She nodded. “F… IT ALL, I’M GOING TO HAVE A GREAT DAY!” screamed Teddy, neck veins bulging. I stood t

“Emerging markets obviously need to restructure,” said the CIO, top performer, years running. “The reason lower commodity prices drive the dollar is reflexivity.” As prices fall, emerging market balance sheets get worse, investors flee to the dollar, tightening global liquidity, and driving commodity prices lower still. “No one trusts the balance sheets of anyone other than the US.” Europe has yet to properly recapit

“We can make it cheaper to invest,” said Benoit Coeure, defeated. “But people have to want to invest,” bemoaned the European central banker. “That’s the role of government.” Which is the heart of today’s political paradox: the role of government. You see, Benoit and the boys tried for 6yrs to get European governments to do their job; without asking, what is that job? 40yr old Alexis Tsipras refused the customary Gree