Month

On a dark Mar ’09 morning, the world gazed intently into the rear-view mirror. Oh the Horror. But naturally, most missed the view out the windshield. Well, the S&P 500 just completed a 100% rally from that panic low; a feat last achieved in the 2yrs leading to 1937. Hmmm… And now the view in the rear view mirror just gets prettier. S&P 500 Q4 earnings +35% to all-time highs, over 70% beat profit forecasts for

Hope all goes well. I’m off to NY for cold weather & warm friends. Was thinking about heading to the Middle-East but figured I’d wait till the boys change the names on their business cards. Mkts were a bit kinder this wk. China’s Renminbi finally rallied. So did Turkish Lira, Brazil and India. US short-rates softened. Overall: On a dark Mar ’09 morning, the world gazed intently into the rear-view mirror. Oh the H

Mara asked me to give Charlie a bath. He’s our 4th and our last, so naturally I’ve gotten pretty good just in time for my hard won wisdom to go to waste; sadly life’s like that. So I threw lots of things into the tub that Charlie knows he shouldn’t play with; that’s the secret, ’cause he’s human. He zeroed in on a 50-yard roll of dental floss. And with all the talk these days about

Hope all goes well. Left the frozen Canadian tundra, returned to spring in Santa Barbara. Kissed Mara and the kiddies, zipped to the trading floor, hugged the boys. Stepped outside to check our Pension Patch. A Canadian Maple is sprouting, right next to a young English Oak. Somehow, a middle-eastern Royal Palm sprung up too. They each took a long time to germinate, but sink deep roots, grow big & strong. Brought

Men are driven by a primeval fight-or-flight impulse so naturally, when we feel unloved or unwanted, some fight, others take flight. And the world kinda loves Doves these days, so it ain’t easy being a Hawk. But US Fed’s Lacker fought, “The distinct improvement seen in the economic outlook since QE2 was initiated, suggests taking re-evaluation quite seriously.” Fed’s Fisher battled too, “I’ll be at the forefront of t

One of my mentors builds propulsion systems for stealthy Predators. He’s a 75 yr old entrepreneur, leads by example – never stops moving, or loses his intense curiosity. Last weekend he brought me a picture-book. The iconic 1937 Hindenburg photo dominated the cover. Swastika’s adorned the zeppelin’s tail. Took 30mins to read. Hydrogen didn’t destroy it. An intense electrical discharge ignited the silvery skin,

Met a professor, taught at Yale. He’s real smart and better yet, used that blessed gift to build serious wealth on Wall Street. We’re all born with gifts, clever guys figure out how to use ‘em well. Anyhow, he taught the History of Financial Crisis, telling stories to hungry youngsters, of the battle for power and money on the Street. And kids love listening to lyrics from guys who’ve walked the walk, got some scars,

Dizzying week, anything not bolted-down rotated – particularly attitudes. US/EU growth expectations surged, emerging mkt expectations sagged. Chicago PMI rocketed to 68.8 (highest since ’88), German PMI hit 60.5, but Brazil printed just 53.1, China 54.5, and Australia (China’s mine) fell to 46.7 (5th mthly drop). Citigroup’s Economic Surprise index measures how strong actual economic reports are relative to consensus

Hope all goes well. Crisscrossed our stormy nation this wk: Florida, Cali and Vermont. Dodged every storm but the one that hit Bloomberg screens. Made money on dollar shorts, equity & corn longs, but got buried under some interest-rate bets. Shoveled a few of those out of the portfolio, may revisit once the weather improves. Overall: Dizzying week, anything not bolted-down rotated – particularly attitudes. US/EU