“The next recession is going to be very gentle,” said my favorite strategist. “The excesses in this cycle are just not that big, or they’ve already corrected.” Industrials and resources have been cleaned out. Housing is fine, except for inconsequential bubbles in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Sweden. And banks are too boring to blow up. “The gorilla in the room is obviously China, because a hard landing there w
Overall: “If I could, I would rewind time by many, many years, so that I could better prepare,” announced Merkel. “Wir schaffen das (we can do it) has become a simple slogan, almost an empty formula that underestimated the scale of the integration challenge,” admitted Angela, her mea culpa lifting the burden of denial, liberating her to act, to lead Europe once again. Her party had just lost its 4th regional election
Hope all goes well… “I’m a clever money maker, always have been,” said the CIO. “My father taught me well,” he continued. “And if you forced me to put my own money to work, there’d be only a few things to do.” Small idiosyncratic opportunities. “You couldn’t pay me to give my money to an equity manger.” Nor a credit manager. “No single sector gets me excited. There’s no major asset class that I would invest in.” And
“I’m sorry for your losses of lizards,” read the handwritten note, in red crayon. “I hope they had a good life,” continued the condolence from our neighbor’s daughter. We’d bought a bearded dragon for Teddy. And that first night, he fed it fireflies. Which we instantly discovered are reptile Kryptonite. And having poisoned the poor little lizard before he’d even been named, we raced back to the store. To double down.
Hope all goes well… “You must fade any meaningful rise in real interest rates,” said the CIO. “While dodging those moments when either politics or philosophy interrupt this trend.” German politicians punished the PIIGS for being profligate. But when soaring real rates threatened the union, they agreed to do whatever it takes. The Fed is hiking to provide room to cut, it’s a bizarre, flawed philosophical construct. “I
Overall: “Stimulus fears drag $1trln of bonds back to positive yields,” cried the Financial Times. And he sipped a skinny latte, afraid of whole milk. “The EU is in a critical situation,” warned Merkel, the headline racing through the Twittersphere, embedding itself into the homepage of every website on his iPad. The horror of European disintegration flashed through his mind, which was even scarier than the prospect
“John McEnroe would lose 6-0, 6-0, 6-0 to today’s top ten players,” he said. “Literally, he couldn’t even play this game.” We were watching Djokovic dismantle Monfils at the US Open. “The history of competition is the study of knowledge and skill.” McEnroe’s skills have long since become common knowledge. “For decades, knowledge and skill were highly integrated in our industry. Which was probably correct, beca
Hope all goes well… “Kimberly Clark fell 3.25% on Thurs/Fri, that’s more than one year’s worth of dividends, up in smoke in just two trading days,” said the CIO. “Kinder Morgan fell 2.5%, also more than the annual dividend.” The DJ Utility index fell 3.4%, that’s equal to one-year’s dividend. Apple’s 4.8% two-day decline exceeded two year’s of dividend payments. “And for those who own bonds to protect their equity po
Overall: Kaboom! The earth shook. A manmade tremor. The chubby North Korean kid had popped off another plaything. The dark side of mankind’s technological coin. You see if Apple can waterproof an iPhone 7 supercomputer, any paranoid dictator can eventually miniaturize a nuclear weapon; if we allow him. And we have. Naturally, every coin has two sides, and mankind’s eternal tale is shaped by how we react to our tails.
Overall: “The biggest things tend to be done by people who primarily believe in a mission and are not trying to build a company,” said Mark Zuckerberg in Rome, describing common traits of successful entrepreneurs. “They’re done by teams, not by individuals; and by people who just don’t give up,” he continued. A SpaceX rocket exploded. An awe-inspiring fireball. A shockwave whose force rippled outward in direct propor