Month

I didn’t really want to answer. You see, when trying to keep an open mind, it’s always better to ask questions, and just listen. And these days, the world’s most precious commodity is an open mind. But I was thinking, I hope he’s right, the consequences of him being wrong are pretty awful. The good news? He usually is. Once one of London’s top prop traders, he now swings polo mallets in sunny South America, looking a

Hope all goes well. My son Jackson rode shotgun. On a narrow dirt road. And heading into a sharp turn warned, “Slow down a car’s coming.” He was right. After the narrow miss, all puffed up, he announced, “I predicted the future.” At least one of us did this wk. Yeah, prognosticating ain’t easy. It’s humbling too. But it’s our job. Plus we marry good risk/reward trade structures to those predictions. And stay discipli

What a relief. Yeah, the Islamists won in Tunisia. But they were the Moderate ones. And Shariah will be imposed in Libya too. Hey, I guess anything’s better than what they had. Folks celebrated – rat-a-tat-tat. You see, if you set expectations low enough, almost anything can seem pretty great. And let’s face it, expectations are low. Everywhere. How else can you explain 74% of S&P 500 companies beat earnings fore

Hope all goes well. Busy wk here. Went through the portfolio with a stiff rake. Cleaned up. Of course, we’d cut out the real rot over the past 6wks. But what few twigs remained, we gathered and burned. Then as hopes rose (and shorts squeezed) in anticipation of Europe’s latest grand plan we added a Global Contraction theme to the portfolio. You see, despite the excitement about a European Spring, and even some green

Hope all goes well. Busy wk here. Went through the portfolio with a stiff rake. Cleaned up. Of course, we’d cut out the real rot over the past 6wks. But what few twigs remained, we gathered and burned. Then as hopes rose (and shorts squeezed) in anticipation of Europe’s latest grand plan we added a Global Contraction theme to the portfolio. You see, despite the excitement about a European Spring, and even some green

Hope all goes well. Virgin redeye. LA-Heathrow. Arrived unshaven, disheveled, dressed down. Zipped through Fastrack. Immigration officer sized me up, guessed, “Banker.”  So I tried it on, “No sir, I help old people, pensioners.” He raised a brow. And I smiled, couldn’t help it, it just snuck out. Yeah, blew my own cover, so came clean, “Sorry, yes sir, Finance.” Gotta work on that delivery, someday it could save my l

BearBucks. It’s a fiat currency. Issued by 4th grade teachers at Roosevelt. Ain’t called Elementary School for nothing; they teach the basics. And face it, these days, any child unschooled in the ABC’s of money gets left behind. So I asked my oldest son, Jackson, and his buddy Liam, how school’s going. Liam’s real earnest, “My teacher’s having a tough time, it’s his first year – our class is a little out of con

Harvard scored. Again. Nobel Prize. Economics. Lemme save you some time. In the old days, econometric models had 2 inputs: supply/demand (boring, but easy to chart). The Cambridge boys discovered if you add a few more inputs, you get different output (complex, but easy to compute). And guess what? They discovered humans respond to policy actions in ways that distort how those policies oughta work. Yeah, that’s right,

This should be easy. Honestly. We’ve seen it all before. Even us traders can remember. Bank of America revisited Mar ’09 levels. Of course, it’s still too leveraged, mismanaged, long housing – hell – it probably got greased too. Buffett’s getting buried, acting unconcerned. Morgan Stanley 1yr CDS hit 800bps, clients rush for exits. High-yield credit’s tanked. Yeah, same story, different yr. Of course, Geithner

Hope all goes well. Yeah, it happened. Snuck up on me. Always does. Autumn. Just seemed oddly darker one morning. The air changed too. Tasted different. Of course, next come pumpkins, followed by turkeys. Dradles. Then Santa. Good little boys get coal this year, naughty ones get orphaned. Yeah the Street’ll be snowing pink slips, it’s Occupied too. So what’s a scared little market-maker to do? Boo! Oooh. Yeah, they’r