Month

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2017 about the sound of silence (see below). Back in a couple weeks with full wknd notes. All the very best, E  Week-in-Review: Mon: Fed’s Daly voices support for gradual easing – rejects idea of 50bp cut in Sept / Kashkari says open to Sept cut, Blinken says Netanyahu accepts latest Gaza ceasefire proposal / next step is for Hamas to agree, Ukraine seeks ‘bu

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote written in the early weeks of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, about managing extreme uncertainty, processing rapid change, searching for opportunity (see below). Back again in September with full wknd notes. All the very best, E  Week-in-Review: Mon: Fed’s Bowman signals she may not support a Sept cut, Ukrainian forces invade Russian territory – forcing mass evacuations f

Hope all goes well… Historic round-trip in markets, with an explosive move up in implied volatility followed by a move down at a speed and scale quite unlike anything we’ve seen. Not exactly the kind of activity one would expect to see so close to all-time highs in equity markets. It’s the kind of odd market behavior I suspect we look back on in the quarters to come, as having been the start of something very importa

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote published shortly before the Feb 2018 collapse of ETFs that allowed investors to sell volatility in an explicit way (see below). Whether they want to admit it, or fully appreciate it, all investors who own equity, private equity, credit, leveraged loans, real estate, etc., are implicitly short volatility (and long stability). As bull markets extend, the ravenous sell volatil