players

“If I guaranteed to pay you for five years, eliminating the pressure to deliver quick results, and let you explore any corner of finance for a way to make money, let’s say with a 1.5 Sharpe, where would you start?” I asked, certain I already knew. He unsurprisingly answered, “I’d scan the market and look for things that have been working. Then I’d explore ways to enhance those sources of alpha and apply those strateg

Hope all goes well… “I was looking through reddit chatrooms, wallstreetbets, you know,” said the PM. “Kind of felt surprised by the chatter. I didn’t realize how many people out there understand the extent of the Fed market manipulation that occurred over the past year. Ever since 2008 really,” he continued. “Not sure why it grabbed me. I suppose I’ve just been under this illusion that it’s mostly people in our indus

Got a soft spot for the short side. Less crowded. Usually. Solitude speaks to my soul. But our institutions conspire to squeeze shorts – make too much money, they change the rules. And central banks strive to lift the price of absolutely everything by debasing our currencies. 2% each year. In perpetuity. So, to survive as a short, you’ve got to be selective, timely. Follow key principles. Avoid shorting things

Hope all goes well… “Hear that scream?” he whispered from one of those multi-manager monstrosities. “That’s the sound of someone’s face being ripped off,” he said, uneasy, flashing me a couple risk reports. “Another quarter, another million-year flood,” he said, exasperated, the cataclysms appearing ever more frequently. “They’re grossing us down, they got to. No choice.” In the background, a cacophony of sickening h

A little wager, wrote the CIO, sitting atop his prodigious pile. What price do you think this market peaks before its next 50% correction? he asked. There were just three of us on the group chat, encrypted, vanishing, no one would ever witness our wager. And I smiled, reflecting on my early years. Back then I took every opportunity to place even the most meaningless bet, anxious to prove my prowess. The years rolled

Hope all goes well… I read lots of new year predictions. And feel for those who make them. The exercise of putting pen to paper for perpetuity is as helpful for the author as it as it is humbling. Often humiliating. So that said, I invite you to join me for Bloomberg’s The Year Ahead 2021 (click here for info). I’ll be discussing macro markets. Policy, politics. Volatility, trends, digital assets. Feeling my way into

Hope all goes well… “Dusted off an anecdote from my discussion with a Nobel Laureate on thought viruses, memes, idea-microbes, contagion (see below). After generations of relative social calm, when the things that drove markets were petty bumps in unemployment/inflation and periodic crises of our own creation, we must reorient our trading/investing around societal narratives. Because, as much as those hoping for a re

“It really doesn’t feel like 24 degrees,” said Teddy, awake, alive, starting our run. He’d been annoying the hell out of me for all sorts of teenage reasons. I decided on something that produced maximum pain with a potential gain. From December 3rd, for a month, I condemned him to a 3-mile father/son morning run at 5:30am sharp, rain, snow or shine. A couple weeks in, Teddy nearly blew up the barbeque, and I added an

Hope all goes well… “Our Constitution and our Republic will overcome this stain and We the People will come together again in our never-ending effort to form a more perfect Union,” said General Mattis, a remarkable man of the highest integrity. The role of a leader is to lift, no doubt about it. And so, on the descent, we should look for moments that may mark the low. But as investors we must remain clear-eyed. And h