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A little wager, wrote the CIO, sitting atop his prodigious pile. What price do you think this market peaks before its next 50% correction? he asked. There were just three of us on the group chat, encrypted, vanishing, no one would ever witness our wager. And I smiled, reflecting on my early years. Back then I took every opportunity to place even the most meaningless bet, anxious to prove my prowess. The years rolled

Hope all goes well… I read lots of new year predictions. And feel for those who make them. The exercise of putting pen to paper for perpetuity is as helpful for the author as it as it is humbling. Often humiliating. So that said, I invite you to join me for Bloomberg’s The Year Ahead 2021 (click here for info). I’ll be discussing macro markets. Policy, politics. Volatility, trends, digital assets. Feeling my way into

Hope all goes well… “Dusted off an anecdote from my discussion with a Nobel Laureate on thought viruses, memes, idea-microbes, contagion (see below). After generations of relative social calm, when the things that drove markets were petty bumps in unemployment/inflation and periodic crises of our own creation, we must reorient our trading/investing around societal narratives. Because, as much as those hoping for a re

“It really doesn’t feel like 24 degrees,” said Teddy, awake, alive, starting our run. He’d been annoying the hell out of me for all sorts of teenage reasons. I decided on something that produced maximum pain with a potential gain. From December 3rd, for a month, I condemned him to a 3-mile father/son morning run at 5:30am sharp, rain, snow or shine. A couple weeks in, Teddy nearly blew up the barbeque, and I added an

Hope all goes well… “Our Constitution and our Republic will overcome this stain and We the People will come together again in our never-ending effort to form a more perfect Union,” said General Mattis, a remarkable man of the highest integrity. The role of a leader is to lift, no doubt about it. And so, on the descent, we should look for moments that may mark the low. But as investors we must remain clear-eyed. And h

Human imagination is the most powerful force in the universe. It is the greatest single thing separating us from other creatures. There is no higher power. Our ability to conceive of a tomorrow that is better than today is a precondition for discovery, invention. And these two things quite naturally stack, compound. Their summation has lifted us from the Stone Age to the space station. The journey has only just begun

Hope all goes well… Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah. To you and your families. Resurrected one of my favorite little family memories, an opening note from Christmas past… Christmas Day 2013: Santa slipped down the chimney. Left boot prints in the ash that spilled across our hearth. And the jolly fella stuffed stockings. Built a train set too. Sprinkled magic everywhere. Moments before the kiddies emerged in their fin

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an Jan 2011 anecdote I was thinking about when Bloomberg broke the story this week about our launch of One River Digital Asset Management (see below). I’ll be spending December writing a longer piece on something disruptive, emerging, important. Something digital. All the best, E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: US begins administering Pfizer’s vaccine, Biden wins Electoral

Hope all goes well… “Dad, Dad, Dad, come now!!!!” screamed Charlie, racing into my office Saturday night. I closed my laptop, took off the headphones, music cranking, thinking, working. All sorts of commotion filled the house, we ran downstairs. Jackson had surprised us, returning unannounced, managing to come home directly from the Army/Navy football game. His first-time back since July 1st. Mara hugged him, aglow,