players

Hope all goes well. Toured NY. Met 22 firms. Reminded me of my recent tour of Switzerland. And Texas. And St. Louis. And London. And Canada. And Miami. Why? Fellas want to talk about all the problems in our world. In these travels, haven’t found a raging bull. Not one. The globe’s filled with very nervous longs (and plenty of bankrupted bears). Overall: Those shifting plates beneath Japan won’t stop. And it ain’t jus

Those shifting plates beneath Japan won’t stop. And it ain’t just Tokyo shaking. Global forecasts are moving too. Fukushima got upgraded from 5-7, which may be really bad, but who knows, I’ve been brainwashed to rate danger by color code. Japanese minister Yosano shuddered, “The economic damage may be bigger than expected.” The IMF did too, lowering US and Japanese GDP forecasts. Fitch opened a new fault line, placed

What’s the right price? I got asked that all week. Of course, there’s no definite answer, just opinion. Nobel Prize winners say stocks are always the right price. Perhaps. But how the hell does that help? Truth is, today’s price reflects a perfect stand-off between Bulls and Bears. When the totality of Bulls/Bears are relatively optimistic about our future, the stock market is priced high relative to corporate earnin

I got an Economics degree, they call it the dismal science. But I don’t really think that’s fair, ’cause I’ve studied it for 26yrs and have yet to find much about it that’s scientific. Nope, Economics is the study of Human Behavior, it’s impossible to precisely predict, but still we try. CEO’s, investors, politicians, central bankers, hell, everyone uses Economics to answer one simple question: Up, down or sideways?

Yawn. Boring. Same stuff. The US Dollar extended its inexorable decline. Pretty much everything you can buy with devalued Dollars extended an inexorable rally. China continued to hike interest rates (4th time), mkts yawned. George Soros, called the ECB’s 25bp rate-hike “quite inappropriate,” continuing his thoughtful policy of criticizing every EU policy. Credit-rating agencies continued to downgrade Portugal. Of cou

Hope all goes well. Had one of those Yin-Yang wks. Baby Charlie drooled in my mouth, gave me the flu, Mara and I moved house, I threw my back out. But the USD had an even worse time than I, so our portfolio blossomed. Life’s like that, right? I’ll take it. Overall: Yawn. Boring. Same stuff. The US Dollar extended its inexorable decline. Pretty much everything you can buy with devalued Dollars extended an inexorable r

Sadly, one-way bets are a rare find, usually got a short shelf life. Bernie offered one, then made off. Greenspan offered one, then hiked rates in ’94, mkts/economy collapsed. Princeton Professor, quick study, wants to slowly take back his one-way gift. Prepare us for two-way risk. Opened his aviary, ordered hawks and doves to deliver a cacophonic burst. Evans, “Substantial policy accommodation continues to be approp

Hope all goes well. Spring’s arrived. Migration’s in full swing. The S&P headed north, the USD south. Animal spirits are rising, it’s the season furry fellas get frisky. Of course, if you got no job, underwater mortgage, sleep on glowing tatami mats, drink Guinness, Sangria, etc, it’s still chilly. But those are worries for another season. Overall: Sadly, one-way bets are a rare find, usually got a short shelf li

Jeremy and I were 23yrs old in ’89, when rebellious youngsters tore down the Berlin Wall. By ’92 we’d snuck our way onto Lehman’s proprietary trading desk, in time for the next revolution. The European Exchange Rate Mechanism, a rigid/outdated structure invented by old men, was on its last legs. What fun we had ripping it apart – young men intoxicated by inexperience, ambition and fearlessness. We were just 2 r