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Anecdote: “Okay, so imagine the Federal Reserve converts its US government bond holdings to 100-year zero-coupons that are worth pennies on the dollar,” I said to my favorite strategist. The two of us were thinking of ways the US government could reduce its annual interest expense and lower overall debt. “The market would consider it a desperate accounting trick – so it probably backfires.” Low interest rates did not

Hope all goes well… “I Got Mine Pre-Elon Meltdown,” read the bumper sticker. My Uber whisked me through Silicon Valley; neighborhoods sprinkled with Tesla’s. “I Bought This Before Elon Went MAGA,” read another sticker. Everything is political now. Automobiles, energy policies, medicine, science, deficits, even blockchain technology. “Elon Who?” was my personal favorite. And with the Musk/Trump bromance now on fire, a

Anecdote: “Here’s a hypothetical,” I said, the two of us at breakfast in NYC, a friend of many years. “If you and I started a company together, full commitment, all-in, what would it be?” He considered the question. “The world is obviously changing radically with AI, geopolitics, trade, and you see everything from your seat, most important deals, so what would it be?” I pressed, not serious about starting another com

Hope all goes well… “The General told us 80% of the guys killed in Ukraine have been blown up by drones,” said Jackson, studying our numerous adversary’s weapon systems. “Both sides learned that if you control drones using fiber optic lines, there’s no way to jam communications. So, the new drones trail up to 2 kilometers of what looks like fishing line as the controller’s hunt people down and then detonate – i

Hope all goes well… Spent today with our family at West Point, a special way to commemorate Memorial Day. Our daughter’s close friend was graduating and wanted us there, another class of Second Lieutenants headed into the unknown. President Trump gave the commencement this year at Army, whisked in an out on one of three Ospreys, military snipers dotting the rooflines. The President, Vice President, and Defense Secret

Anecdote: Storms roll in fast here, angry squalls, then they’re gone, racing across the valley, dark, menacing, northward toward Yellowstone. High in the mountains, early spring’s grass is of the most vibrant green, the sweet but brief reward of a hard life, the eternal struggle. There was a time not so long ago when this land was owned by no one. Native Americans coming and going. And here we are, at property prices

Hope all goes well… On Friday, Aug 5, 2011, Standard and Poor’s lowered America’s AAA credit rating. The S&P 500 index fell 7% in the subsequent session to 1120. The VIX index surged from 22.5 to 48.3. Even though S&P had downgraded US creditworthiness, 10-year treasury yields fell 22bps to 2.34% as investors rushed to “safety.” The Swiss Franc gained 2%. Gold jumped 3% to $1,717. Bitcoin fell from $12.56 to

Anecdote: Ethereum (ETH) rallied 35% this week. It’s the kind of move that raises eyebrows, even for crypto traders. It’s still lower year-to-date – been a dog. Ethereum was designed to be the infrastructure upon which a new financial system would be built. At first it was too slow and expensive. That’s when I first saw its potential, with Ethereum at $425. There was a future state where all global financial tr

Hope all goes well… “I’d go to California or a really wealthy European city with a high degree of scientific knowledge,” said the CIO. We were discussing shifting global orders, opportunities, and I asked where he’d move to if he were 25 again. “California first, to learn something, and then Europe to build, where it’s a bit easier and you may have a lot more support looking out over 5yrs.” He grew up in the US, live

Anecdote: Quantico, Virginia. The U.S. Marines Basic School in our rear-view mirror. Minutes after graduation, in the parking lot, my oldest son swapped his uniform for civvies, and we hit the road. Jeep packed to the roof, boxes of crap, uniforms, gear. Always moving. I’m still not sure how we became a military family, three of our four kids now committed, our youngest leaning that way. It’s been another one of life