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Anecdote: “Can we step into an office,” asked the older man, quietly. I was a child, twenty-six, and knew nothing, a blessing. They smoked on the trading floor back then, Lehman, London, 1992. He led me to an unoccupied glass box, closed the door. “I have a problem and need to ask you for help,” he said, unable to make eye contact. He was crying. I was confused and said nothing at first. He was a market-maker and tra

Hope all goes well… “Excuse me sir, do you speak English?” I asked. “Yes,” he said. “Is this the correct track for the train to Zurich,” I continued. “Yes,” he replied, a friendly nod. “Perfect, so then I will be taking the only Swiss train on the planet that is running late today,” I said, smiling, the large display in St. Gallen showing just one delay amongst fifteen or so trains. “Ah, yes, indeed, this would be pr

Anecdote: “The problems we’re facing, to the extent they’re actually problems, are because the industrial age is ending,” said Lindsay Politi, our inflation portfolio manager, brilliant. “Check out this chart,” she said, early morning, awaiting CPI, standing desks, our screens aglow, pointing to an S-curve that tracked World GDP per capita from 1mm years ago to present. “Brad DeLong, one of my favorite economic histo

Hope all goes well… Helicopters buzz the football stadium; bank hard then climb. Paratroopers jump, descend, circling, landing in succession, midfield. 4,500 cadets pack the stands, camouflage, mayhem. National anthem, hats off, hands to hearts, cannons, kick off. To my left is a graduate, Class of 1970. All around are us are veterans, season ticket holders. At halftime a POW is honored, pilot, war hero, 1,000+ days

Anecdote: “When I was younger, an M&A titan asked me a question,” said the Chairman. “What is the half-life of a good idea on Wall Street?” he said, motioning to me for an answer. Naturally I shrugged, avoiding humiliation. “One deal,” he said, raising a finger, smiling. The Chairman was sharing his latest read on macro trends, including more evidence of a phase change. Back in early 2021 he and I shared our view

Hope all goes well… “The tenant downstairs wants to take over the whole building,” said the real estate broker. “We’re not moving, we absolutely love our office and have 3yrs left on the lease,” I replied. “The tenant asked if you would consider putting a price on it,” said the broker. Not everything in life has a price, just most things. And good business is about remaining scrappy, always, forever. So we imagined a

Hope all goes well… We laid to rest Ryan and Daisy McRandal’s beatific son Julian Lucas McRandal yesterday. Ryan is my great friend, partner and Deputy CIO. His son, Julian, was nine-years-old and fought a battle with brain cancer, forever inspiring us with his courage and spirit. The day was at once profoundly sad and magnificent. Ryan and Daisy wanted to share an anecdote from the ceremony (see below). Julian’s obi

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from June 2013 about training to win. I take August off from writing to recharge, read, roam. Hoping the same for you and your crew. See you again on September 11th with full weekend notes. E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China cuts 1y Loan Prime Rate 0.05% and 5y LPR 0.15%, China plans $29b in special loans to struggling developers, German year ahead power s

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from June 2013 about flags, colors, policy, politics. Written during the Taper Tantrum, a time that rhymes with QT (see below). I take August off from writing to recharge, read, roam. Hoping the same for you and your crew. See you again in September with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: PBOC cuts 1y MLF rate 10bps (unexp) in response to much

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2021 about finding nobility in great struggles (see below). I take August off from writing to recharge, read, roam. Hoping the same for you and your crew. See you again in September with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: US Senate passes $739b climate/healthcare/tax deal – the Inflation Reduction Act – revives Biden’s agenda, China extend