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“It was humbling, sobering,” said my oldest. We had started the conversation talking about an incident in his final game of last year’s season. He’d lost his cool and got a non-releasable penalty after an opposing player blindsided his teammate. You can never lose your cool, and he doesn’t, yet he had. It is how we learn. Our conversation turned to Gettysburg. The Academy sends eighty team captains and company comman

Hope all goes well… Twenty-five years ago today, two Nobel laureate economists and a famous bond trader received a $3.65bln bailout from fourteen financial institutions at the behest of the Federal Reserve. LTCM had delivered a 21% net return in its first year. 43% in the second. 41% in the third. Greed, hubris, leverage, illiquidity, and lack of imagination led to the inevitable. A year later, Japan cut rates to zer

Anecdote: “I love to walk new board members through our history,” said the CIO, the two of us discussing unique challenges facing endowed institutions in the decade ahead. “Between 1965 and 1975 the endowment lost approximately 85% of its real purchasing power,” he said. “A decade or more of outstanding investment returns had left the endowment flush in the mid-1960s, and the leaders had expanded its forward commitme

Hope all goes well… “Tesla and SpaceX factories have a great vibe,” tweeted Elon Musk, Detroit’s autoworkers and owners on a collision course. “We encourage playing music and having some fun. Very important for people to look forward to coming to work!” continued the world’s richest man, his $271bln net worth nearly twice the combined market capitalization of General Motors ($47bln), Ford ($50bln), and Stellantis ($6

Anecdote: “Conceptually it’s very easy,” said the CIO. “Practically it’s very hard,” he continued. A lovely winter day in August, the world upside down. We were discussing dynamic asset allocation, which for them consists of adjusting one’s portfolio to lean against powerful market trends. “It is the part of our investment program that our peers are most interested in discussing.” He leads a sovereign wealth fund wit

Hope all goes well… “If I could give you a definitive explanation for the phenomenon, I’d either be in line for a Nobel Prize or I’d be a liar,” he said. It was a good answer. I’d asked the candidate to explain quantum entanglement, it has always fascinated me. He’d spent over a decade studying quantum physics, string theory. “The mathematics that we use to describe our work in the quantum field is magnificent. But t

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from Nov 2016 following a conversation with one of our industry greats about disruption, destruction, adaptation, outperformance (see below). Hope you had a great summer break. Enjoy the rest of your Labor Day. See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. All the very best, Eric Week-in-Review: Mon: UK holiday / lowest US equity volume of the year, China lowers stamp duty /

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from June 2018, when the multi-decade trend toward ever lower inflation rates had started to shift. The process that started back then appears far from over (see below). I take the late summer off from writing, to squeeze in some reading. Recharge. Hoping the same for you. All the very best, Eric Week-in-Review: Mon: PBOC cuts 1y LPR by 10bp (5y unch) / smaller than mkt was

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from June 2018 about journeys, and sharing our fears, failures, joys, discoveries (see below). I take the late summer off from writing, to squeeze in some reading. Recharge. Hoping the same for you. All the very best, Eric Week-in-Review: Mon: Japan 2Q GDP 6.0% (2.9%e), Japan 2Q GDP Deflator 3.4% (3.8%e), Australia Wage Price Index 3.6% (3.7%e), China July Retail Sales 2.5%

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from September 2018 about particle physics, financial markets, quantum entanglement, and how opportunities often appear as mysterious phenomena (see below). I take the late summer off from writing, to squeeze in some reading. Recharge. Hoping the same for you. All the very best, Eric Week-in-Review: Mon: Ukraine launched more drone attacks on Russia over the weekend, Jeff Cu