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Currencies are rather boring. And I say that, having spent my career watching their movements every single trading day, and on most night’s at 3am out of habit, which is a somewhat pathetic admission. But, oh well. Basically, three currencies matter. The dollar, the euro, and the renminbi. All the others are fine to punt around, but they’re too small to matter, a bit like dogecoin. Some people still care about the ye

Hope all goes well… “We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. All planes are now outside of Iran air space,” wrote President Trump on Truth Social Saturday evening. “IRAN MUST NOW AGREE TO END THIS WAR”, Trump wrote in a second Truth Social post. “This is an HISTORIC MOMENT FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, ISRAEL, AND THE WORLD.” Bitcoin

Hope all goes well… Another quiet week on this little planet. Dusted off an anecdote about the conflict between the US and Iran, from back in 2019, during Trump’s first term (see below). Happy Father’s Day. Back next Sunday with full weekend notes. All the very best, Eric Week-in-Review: Mon: Trump sends National Guard into LA without Newsome’s permission. China/US trade talks reportedly going well. Trump eyes easing

Anecdote: “Okay, so imagine the Federal Reserve converts its US government bond holdings to 100-year zero-coupons that are worth pennies on the dollar,” I said to my favorite strategist. The two of us were thinking of ways the US government could reduce its annual interest expense and lower overall debt. “The market would consider it a desperate accounting trick – so it probably backfires.” Low interest rates did not

Hope all goes well… “I Got Mine Pre-Elon Meltdown,” read the bumper sticker. My Uber whisked me through Silicon Valley; neighborhoods sprinkled with Tesla’s. “I Bought This Before Elon Went MAGA,” read another sticker. Everything is political now. Automobiles, energy policies, medicine, science, deficits, even blockchain technology. “Elon Who?” was my personal favorite. And with the Musk/Trump bromance now on fire, a

Anecdote: “Here’s a hypothetical,” I said, the two of us at breakfast in NYC, a friend of many years. “If you and I started a company together, full commitment, all-in, what would it be?” He considered the question. “The world is obviously changing radically with AI, geopolitics, trade, and you see everything from your seat, most important deals, so what would it be?” I pressed, not serious about starting another com

Hope all goes well… “The General told us 80% of the guys killed in Ukraine have been blown up by drones,” said Jackson, studying our numerous adversary’s weapon systems. “Both sides learned that if you control drones using fiber optic lines, there’s no way to jam communications. So, the new drones trail up to 2 kilometers of what looks like fishing line as the controller’s hunt people down and then detonate – i

Hope all goes well… Spent today with our family at West Point, a special way to commemorate Memorial Day. Our daughter’s close friend was graduating and wanted us there, another class of Second Lieutenants headed into the unknown. President Trump gave the commencement this year at Army, whisked in an out on one of three Ospreys, military snipers dotting the rooflines. The President, Vice President, and Defense Secret

Anecdote: Storms roll in fast here, angry squalls, then they’re gone, racing across the valley, dark, menacing, northward toward Yellowstone. High in the mountains, early spring’s grass is of the most vibrant green, the sweet but brief reward of a hard life, the eternal struggle. There was a time not so long ago when this land was owned by no one. Native Americans coming and going. And here we are, at property prices

Hope all goes well… On Friday, Aug 5, 2011, Standard and Poor’s lowered America’s AAA credit rating. The S&P 500 index fell 7% in the subsequent session to 1120. The VIX index surged from 22.5 to 48.3. Even though S&P had downgraded US creditworthiness, 10-year treasury yields fell 22bps to 2.34% as investors rushed to “safety.” The Swiss Franc gained 2%. Gold jumped 3% to $1,717. Bitcoin fell from $12.56 to