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“Faith, cynicism, skepticism,” said the CIO. “The faithful believe in something, cynics believe in nothing, skeptics find the balance,” he continued. “Western society was built on a foundation of healthy skepticism, and this is quite clearly being lost. It is easiest to observe in Washington which makes sense because the political costs of polarization in today’s world are declining,” he said. “We increasingly see th

Hope all goes well… “Congratulations to NASA and everyone whose hard work made Perseverance’s historic landing possible,” said Joe Biden, pointing to Mars, an inhospitable planet that once supported oceans, lakes, a rich atmosphere, possibly life. “Today proved once again that with the power of science and American ingenuity, nothing is beyond the realm of possibility,” boasted our President, 14mm Texans without clea

Hope all goes well… Zipped down to Annapolis for Jackson’s first college lacrosse game. Brought me back to an anecdote from 2013 about blocking out noise, focusing on the process (see below). See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Myanmar imposes martial law, Tesla announces $1.5bln bitcoin purchase (bitcoin prices hit new all-time highs), South Africa halts AZ va

“If I guaranteed to pay you for five years, eliminating the pressure to deliver quick results, and let you explore any corner of finance for a way to make money, let’s say with a 1.5 Sharpe, where would you start?” I asked, certain I already knew. He unsurprisingly answered, “I’d scan the market and look for things that have been working. Then I’d explore ways to enhance those sources of alpha and apply those strateg

Hope all goes well… “I was looking through reddit chatrooms, wallstreetbets, you know,” said the PM. “Kind of felt surprised by the chatter. I didn’t realize how many people out there understand the extent of the Fed market manipulation that occurred over the past year. Ever since 2008 really,” he continued. “Not sure why it grabbed me. I suppose I’ve just been under this illusion that it’s mostly people in our indus

Got a soft spot for the short side. Less crowded. Usually. Solitude speaks to my soul. But our institutions conspire to squeeze shorts – make too much money, they change the rules. And central banks strive to lift the price of absolutely everything by debasing our currencies. 2% each year. In perpetuity. So, to survive as a short, you’ve got to be selective, timely. Follow key principles. Avoid shorting things

Hope all goes well… “Hear that scream?” he whispered from one of those multi-manager monstrosities. “That’s the sound of someone’s face being ripped off,” he said, uneasy, flashing me a couple risk reports. “Another quarter, another million-year flood,” he said, exasperated, the cataclysms appearing ever more frequently. “They’re grossing us down, they got to. No choice.” In the background, a cacophony of sickening h

A little wager, wrote the CIO, sitting atop his prodigious pile. What price do you think this market peaks before its next 50% correction? he asked. There were just three of us on the group chat, encrypted, vanishing, no one would ever witness our wager. And I smiled, reflecting on my early years. Back then I took every opportunity to place even the most meaningless bet, anxious to prove my prowess. The years rolled

Hope all goes well… I read lots of new year predictions. And feel for those who make them. The exercise of putting pen to paper for perpetuity is as helpful for the author as it as it is humbling. Often humiliating. So that said, I invite you to join me for Bloomberg’s The Year Ahead 2021 (click here for info). I’ll be discussing macro markets. Policy, politics. Volatility, trends, digital assets. Feeling my way into

Hope all goes well… “Dusted off an anecdote from my discussion with a Nobel Laureate on thought viruses, memes, idea-microbes, contagion (see below). After generations of relative social calm, when the things that drove markets were petty bumps in unemployment/inflation and periodic crises of our own creation, we must reorient our trading/investing around societal narratives. Because, as much as those hoping for a re