“Whatever investment style you adopt will blow up someday,” said the CIO. “When that day comes, will you fold or double down?” he continued. We were discussing systematic investing. I see its future dominance and am building my firm accordingly. “If you’ve surrendered control to a machine, how will you make that decision?” he asked. Before I could answer, he supplied his own. “I’d rather practice making decisions alo
“Any other thoughts on the matter?” he asked. We’d spent quite some time discussing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and copycat cryptocurrencies popping up faster than North Korean nukes. I mostly listened, he knew far more about the subject; blockchain, distributed legers, mining, halving, hash rates. Unlike the S&P 500 realized volatility’s collapse to 8%, these new creations are realizing at 90%. Which makes them attractiv
Anecdote: My life in four acts: Act I: Coffee with my wife [building a portfolio to withstand known unknowns] Eric: I ordered a coop that can house 8-15 chickens. Mara: Why so big? I swore we’ll never have more than four chickens at a time. Eric: I’m trusting my instincts on this. Act II: Fresh from the farm [recognizing signs of an impending bear market] Mara: We bought six chickens! Eric: Six? I thought we’d never
I love movies. Scary ones especially. Keep your happy endings, give me chainsaws. Meat hooks. I’ll never forget ERM in 1992. That was my first real snuff flick as a Lehman prop trader. The Italians never stood a chance in the film, they never do. Show me an Italian who can resist a dark woodshed and I’ll show you a hero in a hockey mask. At least the Swedes put up a fight in the flick. Their central bankers raised ov
“Think hard about what you would like from your new coach and what you are prepared to give him,” I told Jackson (15). He’d requested a meeting with Darien’s head coach, a lacrosse legend. “Imagine two young people walk into my office,” I continued. “Person A says: I’d like you to help me build a great career. I’m really ambitious. Please help me.” Jackson nodded. “Person B says: It’s such a privilege to have this op
“Imagine you and I built a hotel 40yrs ago,” said the CIO. “We knew it’d be hard. Hotels need lots of workers. There’s constant wear and tear.” Rooms need remodeling. “We hired 25yr old’s, trained them well. Those early years were dynamite. The place hummed.” Our workers formed unions. “They had a monopoly position against us, that’s basically what we call democracy.” It worked fine. “We agreed to pension plans. Room
“Oh dear,” said the CIO, from Tokyo. “No sooner have we declared that Japan is no longer experiencing deflation than we are looking to pre-empt inflation.” We were discussing Kuroda, who in a recent speech quoted Ralph Hawtrey, pioneer in the field of central bank expectations management. “In his book ‘Monetary Reconstruction’ published in 1923, Hawtrey stated that “it is not the past rise in prices but the future ri
“Picketty took 400 pages to prove something that is glaringly obvious and he under-proved it,” said The Dealer, shuffling. “Ninety-five percent of the poker room loses money to five percent of the players,” he explained, relaxed, chatting. “Redistributing ten percent of the winner’s gains after every month of play wouldn’t change that outcome.” I picked up each card, deliberately, as if it was a blessing. “But would
“They took everyone to the cleaners, they were everywhere,” said Lithium, handsfree on Highway One. “They were vertically integrating, they had economies of scale, the ability to pressure people politically, change local ordinances, extract tax breaks,” he continued, downshifting from ludicrous gear. “They abused workers, they had welfare recipients working in their stores, who turned around and spent their paychecks
“Subservience to capital is embodied in the austerity of modern political parties,” said the CIO, leaning left. We were discussing the ebb and flow of history, politics, economics. Eyes squinted, history appears as an inexorable rise of humanity, productivity, prosperity – periodically interrupted by catastrophe. Woven into this rising thread is an eternal struggle between capital and labor for society’s economic spo