He looked back, steps in the snow. And retraced the extraordinary 10yr path to 2008. The Global Financial Crisis cut far deeper than recent predecessors; decades of policy to abolish the cycle had created the 100yr storm it sought to stem. Central bankers responded with a breathtaking experiment in the meaning of money, which was printed in quantities previously considered unfathomable, and priced at rates that defie
“Every market has its generals,” said the CIO, atop the hill, surveying the battlefield. “Bull markets march onward, upward until their leaders die,” he said, lowering his binoculars, smoke rising from the valley floor. Banks led the last great bull market. Fueled by reckless lending and leverage, loose regulation, moral hazard, and the wondrous illusion of boundless riches that accompany all reflexive markets, these
“I’m going to puke,” said Mara. We waited for the call, the text, the result. Our daughter Olivia was attempting the impossible. “Tell me she’s going to make it,” whispered Mara. I quietly considered the odds. Sighed. Olivia is a force of nature, her spirit pure Olympic Gold. But there’s one problem. She’s tiny. Usain Bolt trapped inside a pipsqueak. “We should have heard by now.” Olivia flew to California alone. I’d
Some investors bought stocks. Others purchased bonds. The two in combination held certain appeal. 60% of the former and 40% of the latter seemed like good round numbers. So it went for decades. In fact, it still does. But we improve in all pursuits. And as we sought to enhance investment returns, we discovered the power of diversification. Our business schools taught every eager attendee that it represents their only
“The period between now and 2020 will be decisive in finishing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects,” said Xi Jinping to 2,200 comrades. “Building on this, China will see the basic realization of socialist modernization by 2035 after 15 years of hard work,” he explained, abolishing the constitutional 2-term limit for Presidents. China is now making its move. For decades, its greatest fear h
“All children are born artists,” said Picasso, “The challenge is to remain an artist as we grow up.” I was watching ‘Do Schools Destroy Creativity,’ Sir Ken Robinson’s brilliant TED Talk. One of my portfolio managers had suggested it, Kanzo, and felt its wisdom held certain crossovers to the investment process. Sir Ken told a story: A little girl was in a drawing lesson. She was six, at the back, and hardly ever paid
They searched frantically for fundamental factors, nerds scurrying over Excel worksheets like rats on a sinking ship. Financial reporters hit speed dials. Talking heads peppered portfolio managers. Unemployment hovers near 1960 lows. Earnings are at records, growing double digits, fastest since 2011. Profit margins are amongst history’s highest. The global economy enjoys a rare synchronized expansion. Not a single tr
It raced across the night sky at 150,000 mph. No larger than a marble. The meteorite vanished in a trail of brilliant light, a faint green copper glow, come and gone. And his heart raced, recalling that first shooting star, decades ago, a child in a backseat, face pressed to the window, searching the heavens. His excitement late that night, replaced by profound sadness. The tragic fate of that distant star, its surro
“Totally failed. The second he told me how he figured it out, I wanted to puke,” admitted my 16yr old, “can’t believe I didn’t think of it first.” I’d asked Jackson if he solved the problem. You see, last summer, my friend flew his family to Santa Barbara to surf. But discovered that Great White Sharks now mysteriously infest the waters. It’s a problem for most, but not him. He’s mad. The greatest humans always are,
Hate crowds. Love fresh air. Long runs, sunshine, storms, horizons. Solitude. Altitude. So when we moved the firm from California’s mountains to Connecticut’s flats I promised to avoid tight spaces, low ceilings, rush hours. “How many people are here tonight?” I asked the maître d’, entering the private dining room. “Twenty-three at last count,” he answered to my horror. “Terrific, vodka tonic, three limes, keep ’em