Hope all goes well… I take a break from writing each summer, to catch up on reading, recharge, seek solitude. Wishing the same for you. Dusted off an anecdote from 2013 on inequality, humanity, a conversation with a policy maker in Johannesburg (see below). Back in September. All the best, E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: 800k global Covid-19 deaths (US leads with 180k), South Korea closes most schools

Hope all goes well… I take a break from writing each summer, to catch up on reading, recharge, seek solitude. Wishing the same for you. Dusted off an anecdote from 2012 about unexpected challenges, mental toughness, perfecting the journey (see below). Back at the end of August. All the best, E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Chinese fighter jets briefly cross midline of Taiwan Strait, China CPI +2.7% (e

Hope all goes well… I take a break from writing each summer, to catch up on reading, recharge, seek solitude. Wishing the same for you. Dusted off an anecdote about the intersection of inspiration and science in the art of trading (see below). See you at the end of August. All the best, E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China PMI manu +1.6 to 52.8, Australia’s Victoria declares state of disaster over Co

Hope all goes well… I take a break from writing each summer, to catch up on reading, recharge, seek solitude. Wishing the same for you. Dusted off a sports anecdote about things that can’t be taught, only found (see below). Back at the end of August. All the best, E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Chinese researcher/spy arrested in SF consulate, global negatively-yielding debt hits $15.2trln (above Marc

Hope all goes well… I take a break from writing each summer, to catch up on reading, recharge, seek solitude. Wishing the same for you. Dusted off an anecdote from 2017 about revolutions and the treacherous path we’re on (see below). See you at the end of August. All the best, E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Beijing regulators to allow insurance companies to own more stock (Chinese equities +2.6%), Ja

Hope all goes well… I take a break from writing each summer, to catch up on reading, recharge, seek solitude. Wishing the same for you. Dusted off an anecdote I wrote in Dec 2017 about learning to take a profit, a lesson learned in 1992. See you at the end of August. All the best, E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: WHO announces 230k record global Covid cases, Singapore Q2 GDP -41% (construction -95.6%),

Hope all goes well… A Golden Eagle took up residence here as Jackson left for Annapolis. He’s our first to leave the nest, his great adventure beckons. Plebe Summer marks its dramatic beginning. Charlie shaved his head in solidarity, desperately missing his big brother. He and I now search treetops for the magnificent creature, our Golden Eagle, our good omen, his wingspan over six feet. He perches on bare branches,

ACentral bankers are generally the worst. But politicians are also terrible, and they’re not alone, we all find it profoundly difficult to admit we’re wrong. We’re human. That said, those investors who survive a few cycles develop the ability to face mistakes, change their minds, and act accordingly. Traders learn to do the same, just more frequently, and thus come across as frustratingly non-committal. In all of tho

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from September 2017 on experience and introspection, mankind and machine. See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China passes new national security law for HK, NYT reports Russia paid Taliban to kill US troops and Trump knew but did not respond (White House denies report), S&P +1.5%; Tue: HK police arrest 30 pro-democ

A transition has begun. They have always happened and forever will. In the forty-three years since the 1977 Reform Act, the Fed has had relatively simple marching orders; maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. It chose to interpret this mandate and execute it in a way that dramatically increased America’s debt and leverage while suppressing economic and market volatility. But humani