Anecdote: Old photos of decrepit dhows, empty sand bars, pearl divers seared by the sun, smiling, hung in the lobby. Reminders of a simple past, slow, humble, modest in the extreme. The elevators lifted us from that foundation high above the desert. Glass, marble, steel, quiet offices reserved to discuss a matter of the utmost importance. Identifying opportunities, compounding the nation’s vast wealth. The building’s

Hope all goes well… “Opposition fighters in Syria, in an unprecedented move, have totally taken over numerous cities, in a highly coordinated offensive, and are now on the outskirts of Damascus, obviously preparing to make a very big move toward taking out Assad,” wrote Trump on Truth Social, providing a taste of what’s to come in foreign policy. He made America’s position clear: “Syria is a mess, but is not our frie

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote about time and money from 2016 (see below), back when the western world seemed stuck in secular stagnation. Before Brexit, Trump, trade wars, Covid, government stimmies, runaway deficits, inflation, war in Ukraine, the Middle East, the Cold War with China. Back before AI, Nvidia, the IRA, US equity outperformance, America’s swing back to Trump. All signs of an imbalanced glo

Anecdote: “Here’s the challenge for this group,” I said to our investment and solutions teams in late-2023, all of us around the big table, crowdsourcing. “For years, investors asked us to combine our strategies into a portfolio they could allocate to and forget.” We never have. “It’s now time.”  They nodded. “Use any combination of our existing strategies. Include equity beta. It must be highly liquid, it shoul

Hope all goes well…  “We’re going to decide whether we are going to grow our way out of this debt burden or not,” said Scott Bessent, one of the great macro thinkers, investors, strategists, on Nov 4th. “And I think we can. Through deregulation, energy independence and dominance in the US, and a growth mindset,” continued Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary. “I feel very strongly that this is the last chance

Anecdote: “I’d been invited to a dinner with senior Russian officials,” I told a CIO on Friday, sitting in DC, sharing a story from London in 1992. I was a Lehman prop trader back then, and the West was in a nasty recession that felt inescapable, they often do. The savings and loan crisis had taken its toll. London cabbies talked of the need for another World War to pull us out of our latest civilizational tailspin.

Hope all goes well… “This is quite a blue town,” said the CIO in DC. I had asked him about the post-election vibe. “Most of the city is kind of mourning, and a narrower group is euphoric.” We were discussing the profound change that has already begun to unfold post-election. The range of unorthodox and anti-establishment presidential appointments, the many possible consequences, economic, military, geopolitical. DOGE

Hope all goes well… Pollsters predicted the tightest race in modern history, between two candidates with wildly divergent policies. Which means few portfolios were positioned strongly in one direction or another. So, with Trump winning resoundingly, the only thing we can be sure of is that the price of just about every financial asset is wrong. The only question is how many months of buying and selling will it take t

Anecdote: “Each stone here is a memory,” said the commanding officer. Thirty of us stood atop a granite mountain, in a semicircle, Hudson River to our east, West Point to the north, American flag flying overhead, black POW flag in its shadow. “And each stone also holds a lesson.” Mara and I joined Liv for a memorial hike in the lead up to Veterans Day. Her water polo team inscribed the names of fallen teammates from

Hope all goes well… The blaze was reported at 00:44 GMT on Wednesday. Fifteen firetrucks arrived quickly. Fourteen hours later nearby residents watched as exhausted firefighters left the second largest indoor shipbuilding complex of its kind in Europe. Four Dreadnought Class nuclear submarines are being built at the six-acre BAE Systems facility, to replace four Vanguard Class subs that are scheduled to be retired in