Lots of bearish chatter and concern over forward looking data this wk (including Obama econ advisor Romer resignation) but risk assets firmed as mkts priced likelihood that the Fed will print money, buy bonds and keep rates low for ages. IP starting to soften in Germany, talk of more Chinese reserve ratio hikes, China PMI at 51.2 is awfully close to 50, Russian drought fueled explosive wheat rally, US hm sales plunge
Hope all goes well. Spent the wk in Northern CA and had a few days with Mara and the kiddies. Overall: Lots of bearish chatter and concern over forward looking data this wk (including Obama econ advisor Romer resignation) but risk assets firmed as mkts priced likelihood that the Fed will print money, buy bonds and keep rates low for ages. IP starting to soften in Germany, talk of more Chinese reserve ratio hikes, Chi
Bolinas California is a tiny spot with big ideas. A rural village 1hr north of San Fran, it was overrun in the ‘60’s by brilliant young dropouts. Most stayed, some smoked their way to oblivion, a few changed the world. Bolinas fuses political rebellion, sexual revolution and creative genius all under the banner of “rage against the Machine”; I love it. It’s where Mara grew up and where we drop out now and then. Lucas
Strategists crunched stress test results, wrote painfully boring Monday missives, traders yawned and said “next”. Robust FedEx guidance and weak numbers from Boeing & US Steel swayed mkts; 77% of S&P 500 have beat earnings est (down from 80% prev wk). Econ data turned weak in the US; Durables & Q2 GDP. EU and Asia data was surprisingly firm. Supporting risk assets was a growing sense that rate hikes in Ch
Larry is one of the great American’s. Born a bastard, given up for adoption, he was raised by a Russian Jew who took the surname Ellison in honor of Ellis Island, our welcome mat. Little Larry grew up poor in Chicago, wrote some damn good code, stayed a step ahead of the pack, and now at age 65, the Oracle has a $28bln treasure pile. Never finished college. Made in America. Couldn’t have happened anywhere else. Anyho
Hope all goes well. Consensus is swinging toward low interest rates, low inflation, and grinding rally in risk assets. Been banking some profit into that move. Doesn’t feel like it’s over, just rather be prudent and find new structures with better risk/reward. No shortage of opportunities these days. Truth be told, there never is. Overall: Strategists crunched stress test results, wrote painfully boring Monday missiv
Risk assets had great week. 149 of the S&P 500 companies have reported; 85% beat earnings est, ~70% beat sales est. The EU Stress Test was anything but. Hu says they’ll stimulate consumption in H2, sparking chatter that China’s nearly finished tightening. Brazil hiked rates by less than expected, cpi eased, fueling talk they too are nearly finished. Bernanke caused a hiccup on Wed by not sounding dovish at HH the
An old buddy owns stakes in the top clubs in NY & Vegas. Works his tail off. He’s an astro-chemist. Finds the perfect combination of rap stars, sport stars, porn stars, movie stars and Ford models then BANG, the young Sheiks, Trustafarians and 2/20 crowd (those of us without 4 kids) pull out their Amex Black. Bono, Gaga and Jeter don’t carry wallets; someone’s gotta foot the bill. The A-list loves him, so he sees
Hope all goes well. Sat back and watched for most of the wk, then took some chips off on Fri at profit targets. Sometimes its best to just sit on your hands. Feels like this move isn’t over and guys are still off-sides, but markets remain fragile and there are plenty of X-factors lurking. Overall: Risk assets had great week. 149 of the S&P 500 companies have reported; 85% beat earnings est, ~70% beat sales est. T
23 S&P 500 companies reported this wk. All but 3 beat earnings estimates, and revenue/share grew by 2.6%. The earnings fuelled a risk rally and renewed talk of enduring recovery. As BP plugged their leak on Thurs, weak-handed equity shorts were seen plugging theirs. Spain had a solid 15yr auction, spreads tightened to 446bps. Goldman settled with the Feds. Stocks rejoiced and printed highs Thurs (+7.2% from the J