The $1trln shock-and-awe saved the world though plenty of smart investors/traders doubt short & med-term success. The EU went “all in” so we can expect more help if need be. Still, everyone knows it just papers over long-term problems. The failed relief rally gave way to consensus that EUR can only fall. EUR shorts and sentiment hit historic highs. Debate now centers on question “can EUR fall an

Lots of conversation in London with wealthy people about (1) how taxes are going higher, (2) how to avoid them, and (3) how the new Lib-Con Gov’t will try but fail to bring drastic austerity measures. “Move to Ireland. Move to Switzerland, Hong Kong, Singapore. How much will taxes go up? What’s my pain threshold before I’d be willing to move? Spending cuts and tax hikes will crush economy, etc

Overall: The $1trln shock-and-awe saved the world though plenty of smart investors/traders doubt short & med-term success. The EU went “all in” so we can expect more help if need be. Still, everyone knows it just papers over long-term problems. The failed relief rally gave way to consensus that EUR can only fall. EUR shorts and sentiment hit historic highs. Debate now centers on question “can EU

Overall: Week #6 marked a violent end to the bullish capitulation trade. VIX jumps to 41 from recent lows around 15. Greek 2yrs trade 18%. Fat fingers get blamed for Thursday’s plunge but we all know the story is far bigger. Pimco’s El-Erian provoked panic with view that “crisis is on verge of going global”. If it does go global, panic will be the standard response. Every politician and centra

US Energy Secretary, Dr Steven Chu, is a brilliant man (Obama is thankfully not scared of scientists). He funded a $400mm program this year to fund alt energy research and start-ups. One of my Silicon Valley contacts just met with the guy running the program. He showed 2 key slides in his presentation. One was a picture of the planet with graphics showing population density. The second showed the world from space at

Week #6 marked a violent end to the bullish capitulation trade. VIX jumps to 41 from recent lows around 15. Greek 2yrs trade 18%. Fat fingers get blamed for Thursday’s plunge but we all know the story is far bigger. Pimco’s El-Erian provoked panic with view that “crisis is on verge of going global”. If it does go global, panic will be the standard response. Every politician and central banker

Week #5 of bullish capitulation ends with VIX jumping 5pts. Trench warfare between (1) Greek and Goldman drama plus more China pressure to limit property speculation, and (2) Blow-out earnings and improving global growth leading to rising forecasts for ’10 & ’11. I met 22 investment firms this week and found only one unabashed bull (interestingly he was Chinese). Investors feel the potential downside

Met many very wealthy people this week. Smart, nice, relaxed, successful. Asked many of the foreigners why they’d moved to Switzerland. Taxes came up last. Their children are safe and don’t need body guards in Switz, they have no commute, 10 minute drive to the countryside, life is good and the people in Switzerland are happy. Some had considered NY or London but chose Switzerland. Taxes help too. Damn sh

Overall: Week #5 of bullish capitulation ends with VIX jumping 5pts. Trench warfare between (1) Greek and Goldman drama plus more China pressure to limit property speculation, and (2) Blow-out earnings and improving global growth leading to rising forecasts for ’10 & ’11. I met 22 investment firms this week and found only one unabashed bull (interestingly he was Chinese). Investors feel the potential

Week #4 of bullish capitulation and we seem to be accelerating. Goldman fraud, Greece yields exploding higher, Obama beating on banks with Volker rule. And S&P’s surge to new highs. Betcha guys spend this weekend saying “if we couldn’t get a sell-off this week, we may never get that dip to buy”.  Die hard bears must be suicidal. Sentiment measures show retail investors remain nervous thoug