“What is trading about?” asked Yoda, high in the Rockies. “It is not about figuring out market direction,” continued the market’s biggest S&P 500 local. “Trading is about breaking things down. A market moves up or down. Are you comfortable fading that direction, or are you not? Hmmm? Has the market rallied on good news, or the opposite? Was there big volume? Do correlations support the move? Are they changing?” Y

“But in fact, Chase is so good at everything he does that sometimes it can be rather annoying,” said Ryan, laughing, blushing, betraying deep admiration for his teammate. Speaking more to himself, than to our clients; providing a genuine glimpse. We were sitting in the Blue Room, a tranquil space. Discussing our firm, our process, how we communicate, triangulate, collaborate. And the client asked for a description of

Hope all goes well… “Friday was the first day we’ve seen real selling,” said Roadrunner, the market’s biggest volatility trader. “Equity vol crushed, crude vol smashed, FX vols have no real bid, rates too.” Two weeks prior, with the S&P 50pts lower, and the dollar caught in Yellen’s testimony trap, the market was paying up for vol. So Roadrunner sold. “Covered the last of those shorts today.” And went long. “Not

“We’ve opened the aperture a bit wider,” said the US official, “We’re helping the Saudis get a better sense of the battlefield and the state of play with the Houthi forces.” You see, two weeks of relentless Sunni airstrikes have failed to halt the Shiite advance. Because not even the most sophisticated fighter jets have much value if pilots don’t know what to bomb. Which means that without America’s electronic

Week-in-Review: Mon: China’s Zhou “growth rate has tumbled a bit too much,” China lowers 2nd home down-payment requirement to 40%, Japan Feb IP -3.4% (-2.6% yoy), Sarkozy’s UMP party leads Sunday elections, Arab leaders announce joint military force (confronting Iran), US Feb personal spending +0.1% (income surges +0.4%), PCE core prices +0.1% (+1.4% yoy), pending home sales +12% yoy (June 2013 highs), Dallas Fed -6.

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from March 2014 (see below). Back next Sunday with full wknd notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: China’s Zhou “growth rate has tumbled a bit too much,” China lowers 2nd home down-payment requirement to 40%, Japan Feb IP -3.4% (-2.6% yoy), Sarkozy’s UMP party leads Sunday elections, Arab leaders announce joint military force (confronting Iran), US Feb personal spending +0.1% (income

Do corrections start on bad news? Or do they end on bad news? Might corrections mysteriously anticipate bad news? Or do corrections create bad news? I don’t know. But by the time I figure it all out, I’ll be older than King Salman. More senile too. Confused. Which is why you can’t hold him responsible for naming Yemen’s new war Operation Decisive Storm. Because desert storms are never decisive. They’re divisive. Dupl

“I have something to admit,” said Jackson, our 13yr old, as I walked into his room. He’d had a day to digest the news of our move to Greenwich. “What’s up my man?” I asked. “Leaving Santa Barbara stinks,” he said. I nodded, in some ways it does. “But can I show you something?” he asked, excited, and played a Greenwich lacrosse highlight video. “Wow Jackson, they’re awesome.” He nodded, eyes glued to the screen. “You

Hope all goes well… “Jackson’s crying!” chanted Osama bin Charlie. Jack stopped. Grew calm. “Who’s your best friend Chuck?” he asked. “Pierce,” said Charlie, smiling. “Well, you’ll never, ever, ever, ever see Pierce again.” Charlie went nuclear. Olivia wept. I excused myself to vomit. And returned to explain the importance of putting yourself in the best possible position to win; giving examples of how Mara and I do

“If this unprecedented journey continues, technical, economic, legal and even political boundaries may well be tested,” warned Claudio Borio of the BIS, stunned by the prevalence of negative bond yields, frightened of change. In a changing world. Solar Impulse 2 touched down in Myanmar, completing its latest leg of a circumnavigation, powered solely by the Sun. Oil touched new lows. Elon Musk tweeted, “Au