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Overall: German regulators panic and spark mayhem. US Fin Reg reform passes despite 3,000 lobbyists at play. Australia slaps 40% tax on commodity producers. As big brother stomped through the underbrush, investors ran for cover, bought hedges, pushed VIX to 46 (closed wk at 40). $5.3trln lost in global equities mtd. Margin clerks took charge; pain ruled the day with a Euro rally as risk assets plu
Overall: The $1trln shock-and-awe saved the world though plenty of smart investors/traders doubt short & med-term success. The EU went “all in” so we can expect more help if need be. Still, everyone knows it just papers over long-term problems. The failed relief rally gave way to consensus that EUR can only fall. EUR shorts and sentiment hit historic highs. Debate now centers on qu
Overall: Week #6 marked a violent end to the bullish capitulation trade. VIX jumps to 41 from recent lows around 15. Greek 2yrs trade 18%. Fat fingers get blamed for Thursday’s plunge but we all know the story is far bigger. Pimco’s El-Erian provoked panic with view that “crisis is on verge of going global”. If it does go global, panic will be the standard response. Every p
Overall: Week #5 of bullish capitulation ends with VIX jumping 5pts. Trench warfare between (1) Greek and Goldman drama plus more China pressure to limit property speculation, and (2) Blow-out earnings and improving global growth leading to rising forecasts for ’10 & ’11. I met 22 investment firms this week and found only one unabashed bull (interestingly he was Chinese). Investors
Overall: Week #4 of bullish capitulation and we seem to be accelerating. Goldman fraud, Greece yields exploding higher, Obama beating on banks with Volker rule. And S&P’s surge to new highs. Betcha guys spend this weekend saying “if we couldn’t get a sell-off this week, we may never get that dip to buy”. Die hard bears must be suicidal. Sentiment measures show retail i
Overall: Week #3 of the bullish capitulation got sucker-punched Friday afternoon by Goldman investigation tape-bomb. That and Iceland volcano provides bears two new triggers (out of left field) to sell market. Fri brought a round of salesman/strategist missives calling for 7-10% equity correction – guys still seem eager to call a top. Goldman news and Obama’s growing push for Bank Ref