Hope all goes well… “It’s like a football game, we’re returning to the field after half-time,” he said, fresh from some face-to-face with Bernanke at SALT. “And while we have no real plan for the third quarter, at least we know we’ll need to hike,” he continued. “But as for the fourth quarter, we know we can’t possibly have a game plan until we see how the third quarter plays out.” After the first rate move, the Fed
Hope all goes well… “So much information, so little knowledge,” he said, towering atop Wall Street, entrapped in ivory. “No economist knows what’s going on,” he sighed, stunned by +0.2% Q1 GDP. “None of us can explain what happened last quarter, let alone what’ll happen four quarters out.” In the real economy, there are few signs of animal spirits. “What’s the plausible explanation?” he asked, thinking aloud. “I live
Hope all goes well… “Just start talking about anything,” commanded Krakower, the show’s producer. “Let’s talk about Kaminsky’s thong,” winked Scaramucci, flashing a smile to the camera, warming up. I quietly wondered how someone who shies from bright lights ended up on TV. Kaminsky dogged Scaramucci for his Ronald Reagan hairdo. While make-up pulverized us with pretty powder. And some dude, deep in the darkness count
Hope all goes well… “Jackson dumped Bella,” said my 5yr old to his best friend. “What’s dumped mean?” asked Pierce. “I dunno,” admitted Charlie, embarrassed. “Well it sounds like something you’d do in a pool,” said Pierce. “Pretty sure you can do it anywhere,” replied Charlie, regretting he ever brought it up, turning to me for help, “Daddy, tell Pierce what dumped means.” And the first thing that came to mind was Ch
Hope all goes well… “Friday was the first day we’ve seen real selling,” said Roadrunner, the market’s biggest volatility trader. “Equity vol crushed, crude vol smashed, FX vols have no real bid, rates too.” Two weeks prior, with the S&P 50pts lower, and the dollar caught in Yellen’s testimony trap, the market was paying up for vol. So Roadrunner sold. “Covered the last of those shorts today.” And went long. “Not
Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from March 2014 (see below). Back next Sunday with full wknd notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: China’s Zhou “growth rate has tumbled a bit too much,” China lowers 2nd home down-payment requirement to 40%, Japan Feb IP -3.4% (-2.6% yoy), Sarkozy’s UMP party leads Sunday elections, Arab leaders announce joint military force (confronting Iran), US Feb personal spending +0.1% (income
Hope all goes well… “Jackson’s crying!” chanted Osama bin Charlie. Jack stopped. Grew calm. “Who’s your best friend Chuck?” he asked. “Pierce,” said Charlie, smiling. “Well, you’ll never, ever, ever, ever see Pierce again.” Charlie went nuclear. Olivia wept. I excused myself to vomit. And returned to explain the importance of putting yourself in the best possible position to win; giving examples of how Mara and I do
Hope all goes well… “We live in a world of trending markets,” said Yoda, high in the Rockies. “Fade nothing,” continued the market’s biggest S&P local, more to himself than to me. “Corrections are meaningless.” The dollar index marched from 80 last July to over 100.50, retreating Friday to 97.80 on Yellen’s command. “But a day will come when central banks tell markets to do one thing, and they will do the opposit
Hope all goes well… He stood smiling. But not quite his smile. Behind him in the photo was a wall of countless skulls. Each with its own story, forever lost, but for its final chapter, to Pol Pot’s killing fields. Jackson has accompanied his grandmother to Cambodia, to volunteer for an Operation Smile mission. Where doctors mend the world, one child at a time. Mara had cried, as he left our little oasis for something
Hope all goes well… “The VIX curve was flat at 20-21,” said Roadrunner, the market’s biggest volatility trader. “Everyone expected things to fall apart, which meant we had to rally.” And as stocks spent weeks grinding to all-time highs, on declining volume and collapsing volatility, the VIX curve steepened dramatically. “It’s easier for interesting things to happen when the curve gets steep,” he explained, looking le